Wouldda Couldda Shouldda 2025 Edition
Hello
Fuzzbuckets! The day is finally upon us. After what has been a very strange and
turbulent Oscars season, we are here. I must say up front that there has always
been a level of discontentment with the Oscars – when they leave out your
favourite (Gone Girl missing out on Best Adapted Screenplay) or when one
who doesn’t really deserve to be there is (JK Simmons, Being the Riccardos),
but this year it was taken to a whole new level when Emilia Perez was
nominated for the same number of awards as Oppenheimer… OPPENHEIMER! It’s
like tasting a chocolate sundae then a bowl of half cooked oats and saying that
they’re both tasty. Emilia Perez – a mess of a movie that just got more
controversial as the season went on. Then there was Dune: Part Two that only
amassed 5 nominations and critical successes like Challengers, Furiosa and
His Three Daughters being shut out completely. The disillusionment
quickly settled in, and I became even more disillusioned with the Academy. To
make matters worse, so many of the nominated films have not even been released
in South Africa yet – heck Í’m Still Here was only released on VOD in
the states this week, so who knows when we’ll actually get a chance to see it.
It’s so strange to me that an organization like the academy, who is really
struggling to stay relevant anymore, would not make every effort to see that
these movies are properly distributed and shared with the masses. After all,
isn’t that what are is meant to do – to be appreciated and shared by as many as
possible? So on that sombre, frustrating note, I present to you my WOULDDA,
COULDDA SHOULDDA for 2025:
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody
The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet
A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo
Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes
Conclave
Sebastian Stan
The Apprentice
Will win: Many pundits are predicting Brody here, but
I think Chalamet might just pull it off.
Could win: Brody
Should win: Man, did ralph Fiennes not give the most
beautiful, subtle performance centered around doubt and suspicion. He would’ve
been my pick (though Chalamet would be my second and Brody my third).
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov
Anora
Kieran Culkin
A Real Pain
Edward Norton
A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce
The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong
The Apprentice
Will win: Kieran Culkin has DOMINATED this season, I’d
be shocked if he didn’t.
Could win: Chances are near zero for anyone else.
Should win: Guy Pierce was the best he’s ever been in The
Brutalist, and Yura Borisov also gives a fantastic breakthrough performance
in Anora, I’ve heard Jeremy Strong is amazing, but I probably would have
gone for Edward Norton. Culkin’s performance just bares too much resemblance to
who he is in real life, which I sometimes feel is cheating…
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón
Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison
Anora
Demi Moore
The Substance
Fernanda Torres
I'm Still Here
Will win: This is a toughie. When Demi Moore won the
Golden Globe, it looked like she was headed for Oscars glory, but then Madison
won the BAFTA and the Critics Choice in the same weekend and all of a sudden
there were questions as to whether she would go all the way. Moore has the fact
that her film is a body horror film working against her (the Academy does not
like genre-specific films!), but she’s also a beloved actress who has worked in
the industry for years and many would love to see her get rewarded for her body
of work. Madison has the fact that she’s in a breakout role in a very popular
film both in her favour, so she might just be inches ahead. Going with Madison
on this one.
Could win: Moore.
Should win: Erivo OWNED that role,
and Moore’s performance was made for her, but my word, was Torres heartbreaking
in I’m Still Here. Give her a damn Oscar!
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro
A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande
Wicked
Felicity Jones
The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini
Conclave
Zoe Saldaña
Emilia Pérez
Will win: Zoe Saldana has, like Kieran Culkin, owned
the supporting category this season.
Could win: Ariana Grande always had a chance here, but
notice I said HAD, because I think this race is pretty much over.
Should win: Some stellar performances here, but just
like her co-star, Grande was made for this role. It’s effortless. She’s so
funny, like, laugh out loud funny! I really wish she was winning this one.
Animated Feature Film
Flow
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory
Zalcman
Inside Out 2
Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
Memoir of a Snail
Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance
Most Fowl
Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek
The Wild Robot
Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Will win: This is a tough call between The Wild
Robot and Flow. Both have won precursors and both are nominated in
more than one category. I’m holding thumbs for The Wild Robot, though
I’ve heard Flow is stunning!
Could win: Flow.
Should win: The way I cried like a baby all three
times I watched The Wild Robot…
Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men
Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
Magic Candies
Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
Wander to Wonder
Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Yuck!
Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet
Will win: What a tough call! I’m gonna go with YUCK!
Could win: Honestly see a scenario where any of these
win – they’re so good! (Except for Beautiful Men which was just eye
rolling.
Should win: YUCK! And Magic Candies are
just beautifully innocent. Then there’s Under the Shadow of the Cypress which
is a beautiful portrayal of PTSD. The other two are weird. Like, I don’t want
to just brush them off as simply “weird”, but there should not be that much
full frontal male nudity in an animated film… I would have voted for Under
the Shadow of the Cypress, but would also be happy with either of the other
two.
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two
Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez
Paul Guilhaume
Maria
Ed Lachman
Nosferatu
Jarin Blaschke
Will win: Tough one. No consensus here, but you always
look to your best picture nominees in the technical categories. The film that
should not be named is out because I don’t think it has enough favour across
the board to win anything other than best supporting actress and best song.
That leaves us with The Brutalist and Dune, but I don’t think
they want to award Greig Fraser again just yet. So, The Brutalist.
Could win: Dune, Maria, and Nosferatu could
definitely win this one.
Should win: I’m a Dune stan.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Arianne Phillips
Conclave
Lisy Christl
Gladiator II
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
Nosferatu
Linda Muir
Wicked
Paul Tazewell
Will win: Wicked.
Could win: Conclave.
Should win: How is Dune not nominated here?!? Wicked
is okay, I guess.
Directing
Anora
Sean Baker
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet
A Complete Unknown
James Mangold
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat
Will win: Sean Baker is the front runner here after he
won the DGA for Anora.
Could win: The Brutalist could also win here.
Should win: Man, I would have loved voting for Denis
Villenuve, but he was left out AGAIN! Then I would have voted for Conclave, but
it too was shut out. So, out of these five, I would have voted for The
over-the-top-what-the-heck-did-i-just-watch Substance, with The
Brutalist in a close second.
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries
Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin
No Other Land
Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval
Abraham
Porcelain War
Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and
Paula DuPre' Pesmen
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety
Sugarcane
Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn
Will win: No Other Land is the frontrunner
here, but…
Could win: Soundtrack to a Coup D’etat just
sounds like a great title!
Should win: No idea here.
Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers
Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
I Am Ready, Warden
Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
Incident
Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
Instruments of a Beating Heart
Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington
Will win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra is the
most accessible being available to stream on Netflix and I have learned that
that is sometimes the key with the docs and doc shorts categories.
Could win: I Am Ready, Warden looks gripping
enough to win.
Should win: Not sure here.
Film Editing
Anora
Sean Baker
The Brutalist
David Jancso
Conclave
Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez
Juliette Welfling
Wicked
Myron Kerstein
Will win: Either Conclave or Anora is
winning this. Mayyyyybe The Brutalist, but I’m going with Conclave.
Could win: The other two
Should win: I’d have voted for Conclave
International Feature Film
Brazil
I'm Still Here
Denmark
The Girl with the Needle
France
Emilia Pérez
Germany
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Latvia
Flow
Will win: I’m Still Here.
Could win: Emilia Perez (Please no!)
Should win: Either I’m Still here or Flow would
be great winners here!
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
Emilia Pérez
Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and
Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
Nosferatu
David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
The Substance
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne
Scarselli
Wicked
Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
Will win: The Substance.
Could win: Wicked is in a distant second, I
think.
Should win: The Substance deserves this one.
Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist
Daniel Blumberg
Conclave
Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez
Clément Ducol and Camille
Wicked
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot
Kris Bowers
Will win: Probably The Brutalist, but Conclave
is not far behind
Could win: Conclave.
Should win: DUNE! Or even Challengers,
but neither were nominated. Gah!
Music (Original Song)
El Mal
from Emilia Pérez; Music by Clément Ducol and Camille;
Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
The Journey
from The Six Triple Eight; Music and Lyric by Diane
Warren
Like A Bird
from Sing Sing; Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander
and Adrian Quesada
Mi Camino
from Emilia Pérez; Music and Lyric by Camille and
Clément Ducol
Never Too Late
from Elton John: Never Too Late; Music and Lyric by
Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin
Will win: This is one of two awards that, despite it
being hated by most who see it, Emilia Perez could win.
Could win: This could be Dianne Warren’s year, if
enough people hate the film above.
Should win: I really loved Kiss the Sky from The
Wild Robot, and was hoping that would be nominated. I would probably
abstain from this section, having not seen (or being impressed) enough to vote.
Production Design
The Brutalist
Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration:
Patricia Cuccia
Conclave
Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration:
Cynthia Sleiter
Dune: Part Two
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration:
Shane Vieau
Nosferatu
Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration:
Beatrice Brentnerová
Wicked
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee
Sandales
Will win: A strong category! Wicked is the
front-runner here.
Could win: This is a very strong category, but Wicked
has won all the precursors.
Should win: I wouldn’t mind voting for Wicked or
Conclave here… but also, DUUUUUNE.
Live Action Short Film
A Lien
Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
Anuja
Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
I'm Not a Robot
Victoria Warmerdam and Trent
The Last Ranger
Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
Will win: A Lien is apparently the frontrunner
in this category, however, I am not convinced, maybe it’s my bias against
overtly political films seeping through.
Could win: Another strong category here. I think any
of them could be worthy winners.
Should win: Man, as a South African, I would not be
able to resist voting for my own – The Last Ranger – though I Am Not
a Robot and Anuja are a close second and third.
Sound
A Complete Unknown
Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul
Massey and David Giammarco
Dune: Part Two
Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug
Hemphill
Emilia Pérez
Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère,
Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
Wicked
Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy
Nelson and John Marquis
The Wild Robot
Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff
Lefferts
Will win: Hopefully Dune wins here – that sound
design is INCREDIBLE!
Could win: Wicked could win here too, although A
Complete Unknown could win here.
Should win: Dune. No question.
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin
and Shane Mahan
Better Man
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter
Stubbs
Dune: Part Two
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd
Nefzer
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and
Rodney Burke
Wicked
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul
Corbould
Will win: Dune.
Could win: They *might* give it to Wicked, but
that’s a long shot.
Should win: No other contender – though each of these
films were fantastic here!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown
Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave
Screenplay by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez
Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with
Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys
Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing
Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G"
Whitfield
Will win: Conclave.
Could win: Don’t see anything beating it.
Should win: Has anybody read Dune!? Do they
have any idea how difficult that is to adapt!? Ulg! I would have either voted
for Conclave or Sing Sing here.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora
Written by Sean Baker
The Brutalist
Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain
Written by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5
Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by
Alex David
The Substance
Written by Coralie Fargeat
Will win: A Real Pain almost seemed destined
for this award, but then Anora won the writer’s guild award stirring
things up a bit. Technically you should always go for a film nominated for Best
Picture over one that isn’t unless it is a abundantly clear that it’s winning.
So, Anora.
Could win: A Real Pain.
Should win: I would have voted The Substance.
Best Picture
Anora
Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
The Brutalist
Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J.
Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
A Complete Unknown
Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman,
Producers
Conclave
Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman,
Producers
Dune: Part Two
Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis
Villeneuve, Producers
Emilia Pérez
Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
I'm Still Here
Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
Nickel Boys
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes,
Producers
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner,
Producers
Wicked
Marc Platt, Producer
Will win: Oooo. So, here’s where we’re at:
· Emilia Perez and
The Substance is lucky to be there.
·
Nickel Boys doesn’t have enough juice.
·
I’m Still Here
can win International Language
Film, but not Best Picture.
·
Dune: Part 2 will hopefully get it’s due with its final installment
coming out in 2026 a-la-LOTR trilogy; Wicked also would have ad an
easier time if it was the final installment.
·
A Complete
Unknown doesn’t have the muscle to win Best
Picture – though some mistakenly thought so when it showed up in more
categories than expected on nominations morning.
· So that leaves us with The Brutalist, Conclave
and Anora. The Brutalist won the Golden Globe, and remains a top 3 pic
for many, but it has lost some of its steam in recent weeks, pouring doubt upon
it’s prospects. Conclave is a tightly drawn political thriller that got
a heck of a lot more attention than most thought possible. It was also liked by
more than most thought possible! Then Anora is… well, there’s not film
quite like it: part romance, part comedy, part drama (in that 3-act order), and
(most importantly) it won the PGA, which is your biggest precursor for Best
Picture! So, I have to put my money there.
Could win: Conclave – please oh please oh
please!
Should win: Dune: Part 2 – I’ll get off my soap
box now.
Let me know what you think guys… To those who made it
to the end… I thank you, and sorry for wasting your time. LOL.
