Part 2 coming right at you!
Best Actor
- Christian Bale – Vice as Dick Cheney*
- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born as Jackson "Jack" Maine*
- Willem Dafoe – At Eternity's Gate as Vincent van Gogh
- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury*
- Viggo Mortensen – Green Book as Frank "Tony Lip" Vallelonga*
Will Win: Rami Malek has won everything needed to come out on top here.
Could Win: Christian Bale won the other Golden Globe, but his chances faded after Malek won the screen actors guild and BAFTA award. If there was a split there, he’d have more of a chance.
Should Win: I really enjoyed Bradley Cooper’s performance, but my heart always seems to go out to addicts. Christian Bale is great, as always, and Malek’s performance is fantastic, but I can’t help but agree with some voices crying out that he is basically portraying a charicature of Freddy instead of embodying him. I’d vote for Cooper.
Best Actress
- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma as Cleodegaria "Cleo" Gutiérrez*
- Glenn Close – The Wife as Joan Castleman
- Olivia Colman – The Favourite as Anne, Queen of Great Britain*
- Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born as Ally Maine*
- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel
Will Win: Glenn Close – for this performance and the many that preceded it
Could Win: Olivia Coleman and Yalitza Aparico are in close second and third respectively. But many conscider Coleman’s performance to be a supporting act which could count against her. If Aparico wins here, Roma is winning picture and director and you can go to bed because you won’t be missing anything.
Should Win: Gaga was an early lead in the way Emma Stone was a couple of years ago. She carries the film in an almost effortless fashion, but, unlike Stone, she lost momentum when she lost the Globe and I suspect that there’s not much more to her range than what this role displays. Out of the films I’ve seen, I enjoyed Aparico’s understated performance the most.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali – Green Book as Don Shirley*
- Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman as Philip "Flip" Zimmerman*
- Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born as Bobby Maine*
- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock
- Sam Rockwell – Vice as George W. Bush*
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: a very small chance Richard E. Grant upsets here, but it’s unlikely
Should Win: For me, understated roles are often the most deserving at the Oscars, and Sam Elliot’s role was golden in my books, but Mahershala Ali sealed it with that scene in the rain in the middle of the road – broken! I well-deserved second win in three years!
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams – Vice as Lynne Cheney*
- Marina de Tavira – Roma as Sofía*
- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers
- Emma Stone – The Favourite as Abigail Masham, Baroness Masham*
- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite as Sarah Churchill, Duchess of Marlborough*
Will Win: Though Regina King wasn’t nominated by her peers at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, she’s the favourite to win here.
Could Win: Amy Adams is always the bridesmaid, but never the bride, and alas, she finds herself in third place this year. Rachel Weisz is number two.
Should Win: Stone, Weisz and Coleman form a trio that you can’t keep your eyes off in the favourite but out of the three I’ve seen, I’d give it to Adams for the (say it with me now) understated performance.
Best Original Screenplay
- The Favourite – Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara*
- First Reformed – Written by Paul Schrader
- Green Book – Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly*
- Roma – Written by Alfonso Cuarón*
- Vice – Written by Adam McKay*
Will Win: Green Book and The Favourite are neck-and-neck in this race, but I think Green Book has the edge.
Could Win: The Favourite (or Vice or First Reformed). This is (along with the sound prizes) one of the only categories Roma is not likely to win. That said, if it does, it’s the sign of a sweep for Roma!
Should Win: I really enjoyed Vice, and I honestly though part of what makes Green Book so great is its ability to balance the narrative, so that it only skims the edges of clichédom without entering into it. That said, The Favourite is brilliant too! I would vote for Green Book only for variety purposes (as I would’ve voted for McKay in the Best Director category already.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Screenplay by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen; based on the short stories All Gold Canyon by Jack London, The Gal Who Got Rattled by Stewart Edward White, and short stories by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
- BlacKkKlansman – Screenplay by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee; based on the book by Ron Stallworth*
- Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty; based on the book by Lee Israel
- If Beale Street Could Talk – Screenplay by Barry Jenkins; based on the book by James Baldwin
- A Star Is Born – Screenplay by Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters; based on the 1954 screenplay by Moss Hart and the 1976 screenplay by Joan Didion, John Gregory Dunne & Frank Pierson; based on a story by Robert Carson & William A. Wellman*
Will Win: Blackkklansman, probably.
Could Win: Beale Street could (smooth) talk its way to a win here too.
Should Win: Having only seen two of these, it’s hard to give an opinion. Though keeping a screenplay fresh after it’s third re-telling is quite a feat, Blackkklansman is so brilliantly and blatantly Spike Lee, I’d award it to him.
Best Animated Feature Film
- Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle*
- Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
- Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda and Yūichirō Saitō
- Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer*
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller*
Will Win: Spider-man
Could Win: Incredibles 2 – beware the Pixar machine!
Should Win: I can’t believe I’ve yet to see Isle of Dogs! That said, Spider-man was fresh, entertaining, moving, exciting and a bunch of other colourful adjectives! It totes deserves this!
Best Live Action Short Film
- Detainment – Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon
- Fauve – Jérémy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon
- Marguerite – Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset
- Mother – Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado
- Skin – Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman
Seeing these and the Animated Shorts on Sunday, so they’ll be a last minute addition – look out for a brief overview on Sunday just before the Oscars!
Best Animated Short Film
- Animal Behaviour – Alison Snowden and David Fine
- Bao – Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb
- Late Afternoon – Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco
- One Small Step – Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas
-Weekends – Trevor Jimenez
Best Director
- Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman*
- Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War
- Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite*
- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma*
- Adam McKay – Vice*
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón is at least a stroke ahead of the other swimmers
Could Win: Spike Lee – that title of “first black man to win the Oscar for Best Director” is still up for grabs, and Spike Lee not only produced a fantastic film this year, but has a stellar record of productions behind his name to convince others to give him 1st prize.
Should Win: I thought the way Adam McKay handled Vice was fantastic – a balance of facts, with fiction, a blend of styles and gut punching truth – postmodern film making at its absolute finest! But once again my heart remains split. If I was an Oscar voter and I had to choose just one, if would change daily. Today it’s Adam McKay – which even surprised me.
Best Picture*
- Black Panther – Kevin Feige
- BlacKkKlansman – Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
- Bohemian Rhapsody – Graham King
- The Favourite – Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
- Green Book – Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
- Roma – Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
- A Star Is Born – Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
- Vice – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin J. Messick
Will win: Roma is the golden child not many films can touch at the moment. The critics are all predicting it to win BUT there’s one glaring hurdle in its way – Netflix. Streaming has replaced traditional television watching in many homes around the globe, and the old white men who once ruled the Academy might not be willing to part with the traditional ways of showcasing the best the industry has on offer. Will they be willing to ride the new wave of film and television into an era that’s sure to be full of interesting surprises? We’ll know by Monday morning.
Could Win: Green Book won the all-important Producers Guild Award, which is important because this is the only other industry award with the preferential ballot voting system which means that it might not be people’s number one choice, but it’s high enough on their lists for it to count! (See here for a fantastic explanation of this fascinating voting system). Then there’s the audience choice. The movie that became a cultural phenomenon and ushered in an exciting new phase of the superhero genre. It was a leap forward in representation and showed the world that superhero films can also be superbly crafted pieces of art – and show their audiences a dang good time in the process!
Should Win: I can think of at least two reasons why each of these fine films deserves the top award. Even Bohemian Rhapsody (which is last on most predictors’ lists) has 1. A great cast and 2. Was one heck of a lot of fun to watch – I remember being on a high for several hours after watching it, falling for Queen’s iconic music all over again.
Vice is the pinnacle of biting satire and is a superbly-written, wonderfully performed “comedy” – though I laughed at it the same way I laughed at Blackklansman – with much angst and concern for the world and the ‘normal people’ who inhabit it.
A few years ago (2015) I said that I didn’t really mind who won and immediately regretted the statement when Spotlight was declared Best Picture… I hope I don’t regret saying that again this time, so I won’t. Roma.
Its been one heck of a weird ride this year, so let's see how it all pans out shall we. See you at the Oscars!
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